EU-Russia ‘trade war’ to finish within 3 months – Danish biggest lender

Thursday, August 14, 2014

Photo:Reuters / Fabian Bimmer

Reciprocal trade sanctions by Russia and the EU should not last longer than 3 months, as both economies will feel they can’t afford that, according to experts from Denmark’s largest bank, Danske Bank.

“We believe an escalating trade war would be unbearable for both Russia and the EU, and that the EU will revoke the sanctions within one to three months, with Russia abolishing its own sanctions,” said the bank’s report called 'The Ukrainian Crisis: the Nordic angle'.

The report focuses on Nordic markets and said that should energy become involved in the dispute, the losses for both Russia and the EU would be sky-high.

Russia is Europe’s biggest gas supplier providing about 30 percent of the region’s total demand.

Experts say the Ukrainian crisis will have a modest direct impact on the European economy, with the biggest risk coming from negative sentiment.

Finland is thought of as the most vulnerable country, and is expected to contract 0.2 percent this year. This is because the country’s trade, tourism and foreign direct investment are closely connected with Russia and Ukraine.

Scandinavian countries are expected to feel a limited affect. Norway may even benefit from sanctions long term, if Europe starts using Norwegian gas as an alternative to Russian supplies, the report concluded.



Anonymous said...

You can slice it and dice it any which way you want; the Russians would come out of this ahead, like it or not.

So. America (and So, Africa) can replace the EU's agricultural products - with ease, and So America as a supplier would likely to remain even after things return to normal. (Remember the BRICS - like Brazil and South Africa). Once a market is pissed away, it's hard to get it back. US consumers would get screwed too, as So. American fresh produce would go in lesser quantity into the US as before, resulting in higher prices.

Meanwhile EU's gas supply is jeopardized and for that there is no viable replacement. US fracking gas arriving in Europe in quantity is at least 5 years away, it's a bullshit promise by the US; the ships don't exist. Repeat, the quantity of ships to carry the gas, DO NOT even exist - yet.
Besides, fracking in the US may fizzle out b/c of enormous environmental problems, ridiculous costs and the sheer pace of (rapid) depletion. So 5 years hence there may be no excess available gas by the US to ship to the EU - ships or no ships.

The EU is run by USA bought-and-paid-for psychopath IDIOTS, who do not give a crap about the population. Of course, we also should acknowledge of which ethnic (often dual citizen) minority runs the US, to see the big picture...

Anonymous said...

The Ukraine, Corrupted Journalism, and the Atlanticist Faith

...To place European media loyalty to Washington in the Ukraine case as well as the slavish conduct of European politicians in perspective, we must know about and understand Atlanticism.
...Needless to say, the Cold War gave birth to Atlanticism. Ironically, it gained strength as the threat from the Soviet Union became less persuasive for increasing numbers among European political elites. That probably was a matter of generational change: the farther away from World War II, the less European governments remembered what it means to have an independent foreign policy on global-sized issues. Current heads of government of the European Union are unfamiliar with practical strategic deliberations. Routine thought on international relations and global politics is deeply entrenched in Cold War epistemology.
...Atlanticism is now a terrible affliction for Europe: it fosters historical amnesia, willful blindness and dangerously misconceived political anger. But it thrives on a mixture of lingering unquestioned Cold War era certainties about protection, Cold War loyalties embedded in popular culture, sheer European ignorance, and an understandable reluctance to concede that one has even for a little bit been brainwashed. Washington can do outrageous things while leaving Atlanticism intact because of everyone’s forgetfulness, which the media do little or nothing to cure.
...cannot bring themselves to place the Ukraine crisis in proper perspective by acknowledging that Washington started it all, and that Washington rather than Putin has the key to its solution. It would impel a renunciation of Atlanticism.
Atlanticism derives much of its strength through NATO, its institutional embodiment. The reason for NATO’s existence, which disappeard with the demise of the Soviet Union, has been largely forgotten.
...NATO has for some time now been a liability for the European Union, as it prevents development of concerted European foreign and defense policies, and has forced the member states to become instruments serving American militarism. It is also a moral liability because the governments participating in the ‘coalition of the willing’ have had to sell the lie to their citizens that European soldiers dying in Iraq and Afghanistan have been a necessary sacrifice to keep Europe safe from terrorists.
...As is the mark of an ideology, Atlanticism is ahistorical. As horse medicine against the torment of fundamental political ambiguity it supplies its own history: one that may be rewritten by American mainstream media as they assist in spreading the word from Washington.
...the Cold War ended through diplomacy with a deal made on Malta between Gorbachev and the elder Bush in December 1989, in which James Baker got Gorbachev to accept the reunification of Germany and withdrawal of Warsaw Pact troops with a promise that NATO would not be extended even one inch to the East... in return for Bush’s promise that Washington would not take advantage of a Soviet withdrawal from Eastern Europe.
...It is beginning to sink in among older Europeans that the United States has enemies who are not Europe’s enemies because it needs them for domestic political reasons; to keep an economically hugely important war industry going and to test by shorthand the political bona fides of contenders for public office.
...Other hindrances to an awakening remain huge; financialization and neoliberal policies have produced an intimate transatlantic entwining of plutocratic interests. Together with the Atlanticist faith these have helped stymie the political development of the European Union, and with that Europe’s ability to proceed with independent political decisions.
...History is being made, once again. What may well determine Europe’s fate is that also outside the defenders of the Atlanticist faith, decent Europeans cannot bring themselves to believe in the dysfunction and utter irresponsibility of the American state.

Anonymous said...

Media Disinformation: Russian Tanks in Ukraine? Consider the Source

...British propaganda, like its newer but equally deceitful American counterparts, has exhausted its legitimacy and panders to shrinking audiences. Desperately trying to maintain control over the global narrative, everything from cognitive infiltration of newer forms of alternative media, to fabricating entire audiences to manufacture popularity has been used to propagate the agenda of special interests occupying Wall Street and the City of London...

The Dumbing Down of America – By Design

...After centuries of carefully orchestrated design, oligarchs of the banking cabal have finally gotten what they’ve been plotting and scheming, globally enforced austerity and impoverishment reducing life in America and around the world to near Third World status, and absolute control. The oligarchs are counting on a dumbed down population too busy addicted to their video games or watching sports or Kim Kardashian’s latest wardrobe malfunction to even notice that a longtime oligarch eugenics plan is already well underway.
...But this planned system of a New World Order (NOW) featuring a planned global economy and a planned global education system has been promoted for well over a century. The Carnegie Foundation outlined its explicit roadmap for absolute oligarch control way back in the 1930’s.
...proclaimed his NWO agenda in 1947:“… establishment of a genuine world order, an order in which national sovereignty is subordinate to world authority…”
...Common Core...Concealed in the fine print is the not so thinly veiled Trojan Horse promoting that same New World Order that Dewey and Huxley were driving at nearly seven decades earlier.
...The embedded Common Core doctrine handed down from Dewey’s Progressive Education is designed to program and prepare children’s impressionable minds toward accepting the notion of collectivism. The group mind is deemed far more important than the individual mind to the extent that a child’s value is only as good as the value the child can bring to the group. As an individual one carries little intrinsic value as a human life without the greater context as the worker bee sacrificing for the maintenance of the group.
...With an educational system that purposely misinforms and indoctrinates young people to respond as Skinnerian rats to a positive reinforcement schedule of operant conditioning, children as future adults are being shaped and programmed to become little robots easily controlled by their oligarch masters.
...Zbigniew Brzezinski. For years he has regularly come out with very matter-of-fact yet incredibly astute and even prophetic observations about the oligarch agenda. Way back in 1970 in his book Between Two Ages: America’s Role in the Technotronic Era, Brzezinski envisioned: “The technotronic era involves the gradual appearance of a more controlled society. Such a society would be dominated by an elite, unrestrained by traditional values. Soon it will be possible to assert almost continuous surveillance over every citizen and maintain up-to-date complete files containing even the most personal information about the citizen. These files will be subject to instantaneous retrieval by the authorities.”...

Anonymous said...

Washington Has Placed The World On The Road To War. Does the World have a “Death Wish”? by Paul Craig Roberts

The drums for war are being loudly beaten in Washington, European capitals, and the presstitute Western media. A headline in the Asia Times is “NATO Is Desperate For War.” This time the target is Russia, a major nuclear power.
...Wolferen shows how the Washington hegemon has captured Europe within an Atlanticist ideology that forecloses any independent thinking or foreign policy on the part of Europeans who are reduced to a state of vassalage. Wolferen concludes that as Washington drives Europe toward war, “Europeans cannot bring themselves to believe in the dysfunction and utter irresponsibility of the American state.”
...The slaughter by Washington, Washington’s Kiev stooges and Washington’s EU vassals of civilians in the former Russian territories that comprise the southern and eastern borders of present-day Ukraine is not only largely unreported in the Western media, but also denied or blamed on Russia.

Official Public Discourse in America: Censorship and Orwellian “Double Think”, “Publicity of the Unspeakable” By James F. Tracy

An infirmity once characterizing the past century’s most severe totalitarian regimes has now taken root in Western public discourse and practice, a process akin to Orwellian “double think” acting as a form of de facto censorship preempting consideration of major issues and events. This mindset is obliquely shared by a majority of professional journalists, academics, and public office holders—in short, those who represent and lead public opinion. Their collective publicity of the unsaid preserves and perpetuates existing belief systems and power relations. To be sure, there are self-evident injunctions for those straying from such unspoken protocols, including expulsion from this professional class.

Once a state-endorsed narrative of a questionable event has been presented to and conveyed by the mainstream news media, it is almost invariably accepted without question by “Inner Party” members. Such silence is abetted by a mechanical allegiance to prevailing authority figures and institutional power. In possessing such a worldview one reflexively forfeits personal integrity to uphold the collective publicity of the unspeakable and an overarching faith in the given sociopolitical system’s artificial spontaneity. Alternative interpretations of such events by the laity can be dismissed out-of-hand as “conspiracy theories,” thereby further confirming the Party’s creed...

Anonymous said...

The European Union and the Trade War with Russia (I)
Valentin Katasonov

The issue of the trade and economic war between the West and Russia instigated by Washington has intensified in recent days. The United States is unable to conduct a trade and economic war against Russia by itself, since trade volumes between Russia and America are relatively modest. In 2013, US imports from Russia amounted to $11.2 billion, while exports from the US to Russia amounted to $16.5 billion. Accordingly, America’s share of Russian exports last year was 2.5 per cent, and its share of imports was 6.0 per cent. In 2013, the US ranked just 20th on the list of Russia’s trade partners.

But the share of countries in the European Union, made up of 28 countries, last year reached 50 per cent of Russia’s foreign trade turnover. In other words, Washington is unable to unleash an economic war against Russia without its European allies. Consequently, the main burden of the war, as always, will fall not on the New World, but the Old one. This is familiar to America. It is also familiar to Europe. To better understand how Russia’s trade partners in Europe might feel and behave in an economic war, we will use European, rather than Russian, statistics...

Crimea asks Russia for permission to import some agricultural products from Ukraine

...Russia banned all imports of milk and dairy products from Ukraine on July 28, 2014 for safety reasons. Earlier, Russian agricultural watchdog (Rospotrebnadzor) banned the imports of Ukrainian potatoes, pork, cheese from 13 Ukrainian plants, juices, including baby food, spirits and beer from three Ukrainian breweries; canned vegetables, fruit and fish from seven Ukrainian enterprises. Russia has restricted imports of confectionary products from Ukrainian factories owned by Pyotr Poroshenko’s (president of Ukraine) Roshen Company over claims to the quality and safety of sweets.

Anonymous said...

What The World Bank Actually Does

As many have heard by now, the leaders of the so-called BRICS nations – Brazil, India, China, Russia and South Africa – used the occasion of the 6th BRICS Summit in Brasilia, Brazil to announce the creation of the long-awaited BRICS Development Bank.
...While most are familiar with the IMF and its predatory lending practices (and those who aren’t are encouraged to acquaint themselves with the “IMF riot” strategy that was developed in the third world and is now being imported to Europe), the World Bank is less scrutinized and less well understood.
...As readers of these pages will no doubt be aware, there is of course more to the story than that glossy, PR-friendly official story would have us believe. The period of McNamara’s stewardship from 1968-1980 was instrumental in shaping the institution that we know (or should know) today: a tool of the Washington power players that is used as a way of transferring the productive wealth of the third world back to the first world.
...This process was described most famously by former insider and self-described “economic hitman” John Perkins, who wrote his “Confessions of an Economic Hitman” to shed light on the means by which the seemingly benevolent IMF/World Bank system is used to oppress and plunder the very populations it is designed to enrich.
...The World Bank, despite its friendly exterior and the lofty platitudes its proponents spout in its defense, continues to undergird a system of exploitation and debt enslavement of developing countries. For half a century, the Bank has been responsible for the furtherance of a Pax Americana built not upon peace, prosperity and free trade but violence, debt and enforced servitude.
...the BRICS have no interest in telling loan recipients how to run their country.

Banks "create money out of thin air":

The truth is out: money is just an IOU, and the banks are rolling in it. The Bank of England's dose of honesty throws the theoretical basis for austerity out the window

Social Credit as an alternative to debt based banking:

Anonymous said...

On Threshold of New World System

Europe was really shocked by the sanctions Russia introduced in retaliation to the punitive actions imposed by the European Union, the United States and some other states.
...Third, those who have joined the new economic association built together with Moscow and its would-be members will be grateful to Washington and Brussels for imposing sanctions on Russia. The countries allied with Moscow will get more profits at the expense of European farmers.
...Europe may suffer serious damage as a result of its dancing to the Washington’s tune. According to estimations of Finish politicians, Finland faces a political crisis and snap elections under the slogan «Away from Brussels!» Hungary has been a traditional economic and trade partner of Russia. Its leadership openly expresses reluctance to comply with the decisions by European Commission. The discontent with the European Union is getting ripe in Bulgaria and Greece as Russia accounts for 20, 2% and 12, 4% of their exports accordingly.
... Europeans have really hurt themselves. They have launched the process of restructuration to affect an entire segment of world economy and voluntarily ceded positions to Asian and South American competitors with vibrant economies.

China, Turkey and Israel have already said they are ready to substitute for European exports of vegetables and fruits. Brazil, Argentina and New Zealand are ready to increase exports of meat. New Zealand has refused to lose the Russian market by joining the US and EU sanctions. Switzerland sticks to its own policy and the Swiss milk and cheese are second to none...

Russia – Egypt Boost Strategic Cooperation

Abdel Fattah Saeed Hussein Khalil al-Sisi, the President of Egypt, visited Russia on August 12. The summit became a breakthrough giving a powerful impetus for development of bilateral relations. The presidents reached deals to create a free trade zone with Eurasian countries and a Russian industrial zone in Egypt as part of the Suez Canal Axis. The new segment of the canal will be 45 miles long, branching off from the current canal, which is 120 miles. The extension is needed to reduce waiting times for vessels from an average of 11 hours to three. The relationship between Egypt and the Customs Union of Russia, Belorussia and Kazakhstan is to become closer.
...The relationship between the two countries has historic roots. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi enjoys strong support among those who stick to the legacy of former President Gamal Abdel Nasser, for instance: the National Salvation Front, including Al Wafd (Delegation Party), one of the oldest and most influential Liberal Democratic parties, the Arab Nasserist Party and the Tamarod (Rebellion) grassroots movement representing left-wing and Liberal Democratic forces. In Egypt al-Sisi is often compared to Gamal Abdel Nasser who ruled the country in 1954-1970.

The Nasser’s socialism-oriented policy was aimed at maintaining the Egypt’s leadership in the Arab world and countering the neo-colonial pressure of the West being an ally of the Soviet Union. The bright examples of bilateral cooperation are the construction of Aswan dam and the support rendered to Egypt by the USSR in the days of Great Britain, France and Israel’s intervention against this country in 1956.
...The world has greatly changed since the times of Nasser but neo-colonialism is still alive. ...

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