George Friedman predicts bleak future for the European Union

Thursday, June 25, 2015

In his Budapest lecture, the head of Stratfor George Friedman said the magic of the European Union has evaporated, but Europe can have a glorious future.

Fifty-three percent of German GDP come from export. Considering the size of this economy this trend can't be increased, or even maintained.

Germany is trying to save Greece, namely because it fears that the European Union will collapse. The Eu's current structure is unsustainable. The Eu's economic fragmentation will lead to the fragmentation of NATO; the current American opinion is that the US has no real partner in Europe said Hungarian-born political scientist George Friedman.

The responsibility of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is to ensure the welfare and the wellbeing of his country and maintain security, just as every head of state focusing on his own country. The countries of Europe have different interests, different historical backgrounds, and different approaches to define their positions in the world.

We are witnessing the end of the EU's economic miracle. This does not mean that the EU member states want to go their own separate ways, it simply means that reconciling their interests within the current structure is no longer possible. If France declares that she does not care the Treaty of Maastricht, and accumulates a huge deficit at the end of the year, then why Hungary can't do the same? Let's face it, only those follow the dictates of the EU who live well said Friedman.

Germany is doing what it should do - trying to expand consumption. Germany is totally dependent on exports, so it wants an European Union that fulfills three conditions. Manaage a free trade zone with no protectionism between countries. Second, maintain optimal exchange rate for Germany and third press Brussels to legislate laws preventing or making difficult for low-wage countries to operate their own enterprises. If I were the German chancellor, I would do exactly the same thing - ensure the well-being of my country. If I were Hungarian, I'd say, I don't cooperate with such a huge exporter because it destroys my own economy. If I were American, I would say: oh, my God, what the hell are these people doing?

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