A secret German army planning document says the EU could collapse by 2040

Wednesday, November 8, 2017

Kieran Corcoran — Business Insider Nov 7, 2017

A secret planning document by the German armed forces has predicted that the European Union could fragment and collapse by 2040.

The 102-page future planning paper, called the “Strategic forecast 2040″ spells out six possible scenarios, the most extreme of which see unity on the European continent pushed to breaking point.

It was written by the Bundeswehr Planning Office and leaked to Der Spiegel, the highly-regarded German news magazine.

The Spiegel report describes the scenarios, saying: “The worst-case scenario is the sixth, that depicts a crumbling EU and a former leading power, the USA, trying in vain to stem an erosion of the world order.

“There are signs of the economic downfall and a backsliding of world politics. ‘A “cycle of retreat” develops,’ which ‘lets worldwide crises escalate.'”

A less dire version of the prediction — rated 4/6 on the scale of severity — still imagines a fractured continent, and an end to what the military call “the European illusion.”

It says: “The EU is fraying at the edges, an ‘end of the European illusion’ appears to be possible, there are signs of a Transatlantic alienation. The unclear world order made the political environment for Germany ‘confusing and sometimes risky.'”

According to Der Spiegel, the document was written two years ago. As such, it does not take account of more recent world events such as the election of President Donald Trump, or Britain’s decision to leave the EU.

The magazine said the 2040 predictions were the first ever by the German military, which had previously been reluctant to make such forecasts, which are relatively commonplace in the US and British armies.

They were reportedly spurred to act after Russia’s 2014 annexation of the Crimean peninsula took German high command by surprise.

Der Spiegel said the paper came after a shift in personnel at the German defence ministry and was commissioned by Katrin Suder, a former McKinsey consultant who had worked on similar papers there.

As well as the scenarios outlined above, the military also lists a number of individual threats to Germany in the decades to come. They include weakening national loyalties, faltering economies in the west, disease epidemics, “drone swarms” deployed by hostile states, and miniaturised chemical, nuclear, and biological weapons.


Comment — Nov 7, 2017

The Business Insider report makes one major omission. Apart from predicting the break-up of the European Union, the document also proposes one possible scenario that would see some nations in eastern Europe leave the EU to form an “Eastern bloc” that would align with Russia.

Although the document was published two years ago it nonetheless accurately anticipated what is emerging in eastern Europe today. Where EU member states Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic have rebelled against Brussels’ dictates over migrant quotas.

Now Serbia has joined the three nations in rejecting migrant quotas ordered by Brussels. Although not a fully fledged member of the European Union, Serbia has very strong ethnic and cultural ties with Russia. So it is now entirely feasible for an eastern European bloc of nations to form into an alliance with Russia in the next two decades . Ed.



0jr said...

The damn germans are two faced back stabbers that betrayed Hungary and led us into ambushes from Attila to the second WW and even stole land along with the austrians before and after the ww and don't forget they were caught with all of Hungary's gold leaving Hungary by the yankees which was never returned and given to the jews

0jr said...

European Armies Recruiting Muslim and irealhelli Soldiers

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